# Bow-Tie Risk Analysis Engine. AI Agent Connect > Bow-Tie Risk Analysis Engine gives your AI client a mathematical framework to map the relationship between hazards, threats, and consequences. Instead of guessing, your agent uses quantitative data to evaluate how preventive and mitigative barriers actually impact risk likelihood and severity. It handles everything from barrier degradation to total risk reduction profiles. ## Overview - **Category:** risk-management - **Price:** Free - **Endpoint:** https://edge.vinkius.com/vk_preview_1tYhmh217ZKWmmsg3kBYG6523njtr2jDbzm4kFmD/ai-agent-connect - **Tags:** risk, safety, bow-tie, quantitative, assessment ## Description You can now give your AI agent a rigorous way to handle safety and risk modeling. This MCP provides the mathematical backbone needed to run bow-tie analyses, moving beyond simple descriptions into actual quantitative assessment. You use it to map out how a specific threat leads to a top event and how subsequent consequences unfold. Your agent can look at the specific barriers you have in place to see if they actually work. It doesn't just assume a barrier is perfect; it accounts for degradation to give you a realistic view of your safety posture. By running these models, you can see exactly how much risk you are actually reducing and where your gaps live. It turns your AI client into a specialized risk modeling partner that understands the mechanics of prevention and mitigation. ## Tools ### analyze_threat_path This tool evaluates the link between a specific threat and a top event. It calculates how preventive barriers influence the likelihood of that threat occurring. ### calculate_risk_reduction_profile This tool generates a high level summary of your risk posture. It shows exactly how much total risk is removed by your current set of barriers. ### analyze_consequence_path This tool examines the relationship between a top event and its resulting consequences. It factors in mitigative barriers to determine the severity of the outcome. ### evaluate_barrier_health This tool checks the actual capability of a specific barrier. It factors in degradation to show if a barrier is still performing at its nominal level. ## Prompt Examples **Prompt:** ``` Analyze the threat path for threat 'T-101' leading to top event 'TE-202' using preventive barriers 'B-01' and 'B-02'. ``` **Response:** ``` The threat likelihood for T-101 is 0.8. After applying barriers B-01 and B-02, the residual threat likelihood is reduced to 0.15, and the path is successfully blocked. ``` **Prompt:** ``` What is the current health status of barrier 'B-500'? ``` **Response:** ``` Barrier B-500 has a nominal effectiveness of 0.95, but due to degradation, its current effectiveness is 0.72. The status is currently 'Degraded'. ``` **Prompt:** ``` Calculate the risk reduction profile for top event 'TE-99'. ``` **Response:** ``` For top event TE-99, the unmitigated risk score is 100.0 and the mitigated risk score is 12.5, resulting in a total reduction percentage of 87.5%. No critical gaps were identified. ``` ## Capabilities ### Threat Path Modeling Your agent calculates how preventive barriers reduce the likelihood of a threat reaching a top event. ### Consequence Assessment Your agent evaluates how mitigative barriers limit the severity of an event once it occurs. ### Barrier Health Monitoring Your agent checks for barrier degradation to adjust risk calculations based on real capability. ### Risk Reduction Summaries Your agent produces a high level view of the total risk reduction achieved by your current safety measures. ## Use Cases ### Safety Barrier Verification Use the agent to check if your current preventive measures are enough to block a specific threat path. ### Degradation Impact Analysis Run health checks on specific barriers to see how much they increase your overall risk profile. ### Risk Mitigation Planning Model different sets of mitigative barriers to see which ones provide the best risk reduction profile. ### Audit and Compliance Generate quantitative summaries of risk reduction to support safety documentation and reviews. ## Benefits - Quantifies risk likelihood and severity through mathematical modeling. - Accounts for real world barrier degradation rather than assuming perfect performance. - Provides clear summaries of total risk reduction across entire event paths. - Connects directly to your existing AI workflow in Claude or Cursor. ## How It Works Get your risk modeling running in minutes by connecting your preferred AI client to the Vinkius hosted MCP. 1. Connect your AI client to the Vinkius catalog with one click. 2. Provide your agent with the specific threat, top event, or barrier data. 3. The agent invokes the necessary tools to run the mathematical calculations. 4. Receive a quantitative breakdown of threat likelihood, consequence severity, or barrier health. ## Frequently Asked Questions **What is bow-tie analysis?** It is a risk assessment method that models the relationship between a hazard, the threats that lead to an event, and the consequences that follow, using barriers to manage the risk. **How does this MCP handle barrier degradation?** The evaluate_barrier_health tool specifically looks at degradation factors to adjust the nominal effectiveness of a barrier to its current, real world capability. **Which AI clients can I use with this MCP?** You can use this MCP with any compatible client, including Claude, Cursor, Windsurf, and VS Code. **Do I need to host the MCP myself?** No, Vinkius hosts and manages the MCP for you. You just connect your client and start using the tools. **Can the agent tell me if my risk reduction is sufficient?** Yes, by using the calculate_risk_reduction_profile tool, your agent can provide a high level summary of how much risk your current barriers are actually reducing. **How does the engine handle barrier degradation?** The engine uses `evaluate_barrier_health` to assess how degradation factors reduce a barrier's nominal effectiveness, providing a real-time view of current capability. **Can I see the total risk reduction for a specific event?** Yes, you can use `calculate_risk_reduction_profile` to get a summary of unmitigated vs mitigated risk scores and identify critical gaps. **What is the difference between preventive and mitigative barriers?** Preventive barriers act before a top event to stop threats, while mitigative barriers act after a top event to reduce the impact of consequences.