# Card Draw Probability Calculator MCP for AI Agents AI Agent Connect

> Card Draw Probability Calculator helps TCG and CCG players get the math right. It calculates the exact odds of pulling specific cards from your deck using hypergeometric distribution. Use it to plan your draws in games like Magic: The Gathering or Yu-Gi-Oh, evaluate mulligan decisions, and track deck changes after scrying. It takes the guesswork out of your deck's consistency.

## Overview
- **Category:** gaming
- **Price:** Free
- **Endpoint:** https://edge.vinkius.com/vk_preview_7a5epFkLxzxKMoByBBzmvGpY8pdJ2BmVrsQQWOP1/ai-agent-connect
- **Tags:** tcg, ccg, probability, mtg, yugioh, hypergeometric, mulligan

## Description

Stop guessing if your deck is actually consistent. This Connector gives you the hard math behind every draw in your TCG or CCG games. Instead of relying on a feeling that you'll hit your land drops or your win conditions, you can get precise percentages based on your current deck state. You can see the full spread of possible outcomes or just check the odds for a specific card. It even handles the tricky stuff like tracking your deck's progression when you use scrying or thinning effects to change what's left in your library. It's a huge part of the Vinkius catalog, making it easy to plug into your existing workflow. You'll know exactly what your odds are before you commit to a play.

## Tools

### track_deck_progression
Update your deck's state so your odds stay accurate after using scrying or thin effects. This keeps your data current as the game progresses.

### get_distribution_table
See a full breakdown of every possible outcome for a set of draws. It helps you understand the full spread of your deck's potential.

### calculate_draw_probability
Find the exact percentage of pulling specific cards in your next few draws. Use this to plan your moves with confidence.

### evaluate_mulligan_decision
Get a recommendation on whether to keep a hand or redraw based on quality scores. It takes the stress out of making a bad call.

## Prompt Examples

**Prompt:** 
```
What are my chances of drawing at least 2 lands in my next 7 cards if I have 24 lands in a 60-card deck?
```

**Response:** 
```
Based on the hypergeometric distribution for your current deck, here are your odds:

* **Probability of drawing 2+ lands:** 85.3%

This means you have a very high chance of hitting your land drops in the opening turns.
```

**Prompt:** 
```
Should I mulligan my current hand? My hand quality score is 0.5, the penalty is 1, initial size was 7, deck is 60 with 10 targets, and success threshold is 0.6.
```

**Response:** 
```
**MULLIGAN RECOMMENDED**

Here is the breakdown:
* **Current Hand Score:** 0.5
* **Expected Quality after Mulligan:** 0.65
* **Decision:** Since the expected quality (0.65) is higher than your current score (0.5), you should redraw.
```

**Prompt:** 
```
Show me the full probability distribution for drawing targets from a 40-card deck with 4 copies of a card in my next 5 draws.
```

**Response:** 
```
Here is the full distribution for your next 5 draws:

| Targets Drawn | Probability |
| :--- | :--- |
| 0 | 56.5% |
| 1 | 35.7% |
| 2 | 7.2% |
| 3 | 0.6% |
| 4 | 0.01% |
```

## Capabilities

### Find specific card draw odds
Get the exact percentage of pulling target cards in your next few draws.

### Generate full probability tables
See a complete breakdown of every possible outcome for a set of draws.

### Decide whether to keep a hand
Get a clear recommendation on whether to keep your hand or redraw.

### Update deck state after card effects
Adjust your deck's current state to account for scrying or thinning.

### Calculate hypergeometric distributions
Use industry standard math to determine card draw likelihoods.

## Use Cases

### Checking land drop consistency
A player asks their agent: 'I have 24 lands in 60 cards. What are my odds of hitting 2 in 7 cards?' The agent uses calculate_draw_probability to give a precise percentage.

### Making a mulligan call
A player is unsure about a hand. They ask their agent to evaluate a hand with a 0.5 score against a 1 point penalty. The agent uses evaluate_mulligan_decision to recommend a redraw.

### Tracking scry effects
During a game, a player scries 3 cards and keeps 2. They tell their agent to update the deck state using track_deck_progression so future odds remain accurate.

### Analyzing deck spreads
A deck builder wants to see the full range of outcomes for 4 copies of a card in 5 draws. The agent uses get_distribution_table to show the complete spread.

## Benefits

- Stop guessing your odds with calculate_draw_probability to see your real chances of hitting win conditions.
- Plan better opening hands by using evaluate_mulligan_decision to see if a redraw actually improves your score.
- See the full picture with get_distribution_table to understand every possible outcome of a draw.
- Keep your data accurate using track_deck_progression to account for every scry or thin effect.
- Build more consistent decks by identifying exactly where your land drops or key pieces might fail.

## How It Works

The bottom line is you get math-backed certainty for your deck's consistency.

1. Input your deck size, target cards, and current draw count.
2. Specify any deck thinning or scrying effects that happened.
3. Get a percentage chance or a full distribution table.

## Frequently Asked Questions

**Can the Card Draw Probability Calculator help with Magic: The Gathering?**
Yes, it works for any card game where you need to calculate the odds of drawing specific cards from a deck, including MTG.

**How does Card Draw Probability Calculator handle scrying?**
It uses track_deck_progression to update what's left in your library so your next probability check is accurate.

**Can I use Card Draw Probability Calculator to decide on a mulligan?**
You can use evaluate_mulligan_decision to get a clear recommendation on whether keeping your current hand is better than redrawing.

**Does Card Draw Probability Calculator work for Yu-Gi-Oh?**
Yes, it's perfect for calculating draw probabilities in any CCG or TCG with a standard deck structure.

**Can I see all possible outcomes of a draw?**
You can use get_distribution_table to see a full breakdown of every possible card count you might pull in a set of draws.

**How accurate is the Card Draw Probability Calculator?**
It uses hypergeometric distribution, which is the industry standard for calculating card draw probabilities in games.

**How does the calculator handle mulligans?**
The `evaluate_mulligan_decision` tool compares your current hand's quality score against the statistical expectation of a new hand, accounting for the reduction in hand size caused by the `mulliganPenalty`.

**Can I track changes to my deck after scrying?**
Yes, use the `track_deck_progression` tool to update your `currentDeckSize` and `currentTargetCount` after seeing cards via scry or removing cards through deck thinning.

**What mathematical model is used for these calculations?**
The server uses the hypergeometric distribution, which is the standard model for sampling without replacement from a finite population, making it perfect for card games.