# Pachinko Expected Value Calculator AI Agent Connect

> Analyze profitability and risk for Pachinko and Pachislot machines.

## Overview
- **Category:** finance
- **Price:** Free
- **Endpoint:** https://edge.vinkius.com/vk_preview_fpKofCb2bgDx2TND0QOHhzBBPx8yCZTHTNgnRdcS/ai-agent-connect
- **Tags:** pachinko, pachislot, expected-value, risk-analysis, probability

## Description

This MCP server provides precise statistical analysis for Pachinko and Pachislot players. Use `calculate_basic_ev` to find the expected value per play and the break-even probability. Use `calculate_hourly_performance` to determine how much you might win or lose per hour based on jackpot frequency. Finally, use `analyze_risk_profile` to calculate variance and the risk of ruin for your specific bankroll.

## Tools

### analyze_risk_profile
Evaluates the volatility and the likelihood of losing the entire bankroll

### calculate_basic_ev
Determines the core profitability of a single play and the probability required to stop losing money

### calculate_hourly_performance
Converts play-based metrics into time-based metrics to understand the "speed" of winning or losing

## Prompt Examples

**Prompt:** 
```
Calculate the EV for a machine that costs 250 JPY per play, pays out 15,000 JPY, and has a 1 in 319 jackpot probability.
```

**Response:** 
```
The expected value per play is 22.26 JPY.
```

**Prompt:** 
```
If I have a 22.26 JPY EV and a jackpot occurs every 15 minutes, what is my hourly performance?
```

**Response:** 
```
Your theoretical hourly gain is 890.4 JPY.
```

**Prompt:** 
```
What is the risk of ruin for a 10,000 JPY bankroll with a 22.26 JPY EV, 15,000 JPY payout, and 1 in 319 odds?
```

**Response:** 
```
The risk of ruin for your 10,000 JPY bankroll is 0.045.
```

## Frequently Asked Questions

**How do I calculate my hourly profit?**
You can use the `calculate_hourly_performance` tool. It takes your expected value per play and the average time between jackpots to estimate your hourly gain or loss.

**What is the risk of ruin?**
The risk of ruin is the statistical probability that your starting bankroll will hit zero before you reach your target. You can calculate this using `analyze_risk_profile`.

**Can I check if a machine is profitable?**
Yes. Use `calculate_basic_ev` with the cost per play, jackpot payout, and jackpot probability to see if the expected value is positive.