# Polling Bias & EV Engine AI Agent Connect

> A deterministic pricing engine that adjusts polling data for historical bias and calculates Expected Value (EV) for prediction markets.

## Overview
- **Category:** finance
- **Price:** Free
- **Endpoint:** https://edge.vinkius.com/vk_preview_XWrKRSTRnCGvNU049bQFUAaHrUWgQDdaSB2ZZsbg/ai-agent-connect
- **Tags:** polling, expected-value, politics, probability, market-analysis

## Description

This MCP server provides a mathematical bridge between raw polling data and prediction market pricing. It allows AI agents to correct for known historical polling errors and temporal uncertainty to find mispriced opportunities. By using `calculate_adjusted_probability`, agents can derive a refined likelihood of an outcome. Then, by calling `evaluate_market_opportunity`, they can determine if the current market price offers a statistically significant Expected Value (EV) for a trade. The engine also provides `get_market_summary` to quickly identify if a market is underpricing or overpricing a candidate based on the raw poll.

## Tools

### get_market_summary
Provides a high-level overview of the discrepancy between polling data and market pricing

### calculate_adjusted_probability
Determines the corrected probability of an election outcome by accounting for historical bias and time-based uncertainty

### evaluate_market_opportunity
Calculates the Expected Value (EV) and determines if a trade signal should be issued

## Prompt Examples

**Prompt:** 
```
Calculate the adjusted probability for a candidate with a 52% raw poll, a 2.5% historical bias, 10 days to election, and 0.03 uncertainty.
```

**Response:** 
```
The adjusted probability is 0.545 with a confidence interval between 0.515 and 0.575.
```

**Prompt:** 
```
The adjusted probability is 0.60 and the market price is 0.50. Is there a trade opportunity?
```

**Response:** 
```
Yes, the Expected Value (EV) is 0.10, which generates a BUY signal.
```

**Prompt:** 
```
Compare a 45% raw poll with a 0.02 historical bias and a market price of 0.50.
```

**Response:** 
```
The market is Overpricing the raw poll with a price gap of -0.05.
```

## Frequently Asked Questions

**How is the adjusted probability calculated?**
The probability is calculated by taking the raw poll, adding the historical bias, and factoring in a time-decay component based on the remaining days until the election and the polling uncertainty.

**What constitutes a BUY signal?**
A BUY signal is generated by `evaluate_market_opportunity` when the calculated Expected Value (EV) exceeds the 0.03 threshold.

**Can I use this with Claude Desktop?**
Yes, this MCP server can be connected to Claude Desktop, Cursor, VS Code, Windsurf, and any other MCP-compatible client via Vinkius Edge.