# Resource Assessment Uncertainty AI Agent Connect

> Quantify geological uncertainty using probabilistic Monte Carlo simulations.

## Overview
- **Category:** statistics
- **Price:** Free
- **Endpoint:** https://edge.vinkius.com/vk_preview_Rg5sTzlHFKalTJoZzdRsibeF4vJTux6iZZ5WUpB8/ai-agent-connect
- **Tags:** monte-carlo, probabilistic, resource-estimation, geological-risk, volumetric-analysis

## Description

This MCP server provides advanced statistical tools for quantifying volumetric uncertainty in geological resource assessments. By applying Monte Carlo simulations to probabilistic input ranges, it transforms deterministic estimates into a range of possible outcomes. Use `calculate_resource_uncertainty` to determine P10, P50, and P90 resource estimates, or `analyze_sensitivity` to identify which parameters like porosity or thickness most impact your results. It is designed to help geologists and engineers account for measurement error and geological risk through rigorous statistical modeling.

## Tools

### analyze_sensitivity
Identifies which input parameter has the greatest impact on the final resource uncertainty

### calculate_resource_uncertainty
Performs the primary probabilistic calculation to determine the range of possible resource volumes

### compare_scenarios
Compares two different sets of resource assumptions to evaluate how changing a specific geological model affects risk

### validate_parameter_bounds
Checks if provided probabilistic ranges are physically or geologically plausible within standard industry limits

## Prompt Examples

**Prompt:** 
```
Calculate the resource uncertainty for an area of 100-150 sq km, thickness of 10-20m, porosity of 0.15-0.25, and saturation of 0.6-0.8.
```

**Response:** 
```
The simulation results show a P90 of 125,000 units, a P50 of 185,000 units, and a P10 of 240,000 units, with a mean of 182,500 units.
```

**Prompt:** 
```
Which parameter is most influential in my resource model?
```

**Response:** 
```
Based on the sensitivity analysis, porosity is the top influencer, contributing to 65% of the total variance in the resource estimate.
```

**Prompt:** 
```
Are my input parameters for porosity and saturation valid?
```

**Response:** 
```
Yes, the parameters are within valid geological bounds.
```

## Frequently Asked Questions

**What are P10, P50, and P90 estimates?**
These are cumulative probability values. P90 is a conservative estimate (90% probability of being exceeded), P50 is the median, and P10 is an optimistic estimate (10% probability of being exceeded).

**How can I check if my input ranges are realistic?**
You can use the `validate_parameter_bounds` tool to check if your area, thickness, porosity, and saturation ranges fall within physically and geologically plausible limits.

**Can I compare two different geological models?**
Yes, the `compare_scenarios` tool allows you to evaluate how changes in assumptions affect risk by comparing the delta between P50 and P90 values.