# Tournament Arbitrage Analyzer AI Agent Connect

> Identify risk-free arbitrage opportunities in tournament markets by calculating implied probabilities and optimal stake distributions.

## Overview
- **Category:** finance
- **Price:** Free
- **Endpoint:** https://edge.vinkius.com/vk_preview_FttFoS0rHYwoh1viCJfwEYtjybGn2FKN7xWJKIXh/ai-agent-connect
- **Tags:** arbitrage, probability, betting, tournament, finance

## Description

This MCP server provides deterministic tools for analyzing tournament betting markets. It identifies arbitrage opportunities where the sum of implied probabilities is less than 1.00, allowing for risk-free profit. Use `check_arbitrage_opportunity` to detect inefficiencies, `calculate_optimal_stakes` to determine the exact amount to wager for a guaranteed payout, and `analyze_market_efficiency` to evaluate market health and bookmaker margin.

## Tools

### analyze_market_efficiency
Evaluates the health of the market and identifies the presence of bookmaker margin

### calculate_optimal_stakes
Calculates the exact amount of money to bet on each participant to guarantee a fixed payout

### check_arbitrage_opportunity
Determines if a risk-free arbitrage exists within a set of tournament market prices

## Prompt Examples

**Prompt:** 
```
Check if there is an arbitrage opportunity for these prices: [2.0, 2.5, 2.0]
```

**Response:** 
```
{"isArbitrage": true, "totalImpliedProbability": 0.9, "roi": 0.1111, "arbitrageExists": true}
```

**Prompt:** 
```
Calculate the stakes for a $100 payout with these prices: [2.0, 5.0, 10.0]
```

**Response:** 
```
{"stakes": [50.0, 20.0, 10.0], "totalCost": 80.0, "guaranteedPayout": 100.0}
```

**Prompt:** 
```
Analyze the market efficiency for these prices: [1.5, 1.5, 1.5]
```

**Response:** 
```
{"marketType": "Overround", "margin": 0.5, "impliedProbabilitySum": 2.0}
```

## Frequently Asked Questions

**How do I know if an arbitrage opportunity exists?**
You can use the `check_arbitrage_opportunity` tool. If the returned `isArbitrage` value is true, a risk-free opportunity exists because the sum of implied probabilities is less than 1.00.

**How can I guarantee a specific payout amount?**
Use the `calculate_optimal_stakes` tool. By providing the participant prices and your desired target payout, the tool calculates the exact stake for each participant to ensure the payout is identical regardless of the winner.

**What does the market margin represent?**
The margin, or 'vig', is the excess probability taken by the bookmaker. You can find this value using the `analyze_market_efficiency` tool, which categorizes markets as Arbitrage, Fair, or Overround.