# Retirement Withdrawal Calculator MCP MCP > Retirement Withdrawal Calculator estimates how long your money lasts by simulating thousands of market paths. It uses Monte Carlo methods to calculate the probability that your portfolio survives through your planned retirement horizon, adjusting for different withdrawal rates. ## Overview - **Category:** finance - **Price:** Free - **Tags:** retirement, monte-carlo, finance, portfolio, investment ## Description You're planning for retirement, and the biggest question is: will the money run out? This MCP runs 1,000 market simulations—a Monte Carlo analysis—to give you a concrete answer. It doesn't guess; it calculates the actual probability of your portfolio surviving specific withdrawal rates (like 3% or 4%). You can adjust for different asset mixes and see how volatility impacts your chances of success. Need to know the maximum amount you could pull out in a good year? The tool identifies those best-case totals, too. If this complexity feels overwhelming, Vinkius hosts this MCP alongside thousands of other tools, giving your agent access to all financial modeling resources. ## Tools ### evaluate_portfolio_risk_profile Breaks down the expected return and volatility for your chosen mix of investments. ### get_scenario_extremes Calculates the highest possible cumulative amount you could withdraw over time in a single, successful market simulation. ### simulate_withdrawal_probabilities Runs thousands of scenarios to calculate the probability that your portfolio survives given different withdrawal rates. ## Prompt Examples **Prompt:** ``` If I have $1,000,000 and want to retire for 30 years with a 60/40 stock/bond split, what is my survival probability at a 4% withdrawal rate? ``` **Response:** ``` Based on the simulation, your probability of not running out of money at a 4% withdrawal rate is approximately 92%. ``` **Prompt:** ``` What is the maximum amount I could potentially withdraw in a best-case scenario with a 3.5% rate? ``` **Response:** ``` In the most successful simulated scenario, you could have withdrawn a total of $1,450,000 over your 30-year horizon. ``` **Prompt:** ``` Show me the risk profile for a portfolio with 80% equities and 20% fixed income. ``` **Response:** ``` The expected annual return for this allocation is 7.5% with an annualized volatility of 12.4%. ``` ## Capabilities ### Determine Survival Probability Calculates the likelihood that your total portfolio will not run out given a specific withdrawal rate. ### Analyze Portfolio Risk Provides an expected return and volatility breakdown for any chosen mix of stocks or bonds. ### Identify Best-Case Withdrawals Pinpoints the highest possible total withdrawal amount achievable over your retirement period in a successful simulation. ## Use Cases ### Addressing a High Spending Rate A client wants to withdraw 5% of their assets, but the results show a low probability of success. You run `simulate_withdrawal_probabilities` with a lower rate (e.g., 3%) and immediately prove that reducing spending significantly increases their survival odds. ### Determining Portfolio Health Before finalizing the plan, you use `evaluate_portfolio_risk_profile` on an aggressive mix, showing the client high potential return but also unacceptable volatility. You adjust to a moderate mix and find a better balance. ### Planning for Peak Years A client asks what they could afford in their best years. Instead of guessing, you use `get_scenario_extremes` to provide a hard number for the highest possible withdrawal amount over 30 years. ### Stress Testing Against Downturns The client is worried about a recession hitting right after they retire. By running `simulate_withdrawal_probabilities`, you model multiple stress scenarios to prove their funds are safe even if the market drops sharply. ## Benefits - Calculate survival probability: Don't just guess. Use `simulate_withdrawal_probabilities` to see the actual chance that your portfolio lasts through multiple market cycles. - Understand true risk: The tool doesn't assume perfect markets. It gives you a detailed breakdown of volatility and return using `evaluate_portfolio_risk_profile` so you know exactly what risks you’re taking. - Model best-case scenarios: Need to show your client the absolute maximum they could pull out? Use `get_scenario_extremes` to identify those highest possible withdrawal totals over their lifetime. - Test different rates instantly: Compare how a 3.5% vs. a 4% withdrawal rate affects success probability with one call to `simulate_withdrawal_probabilities`. No spreadsheets needed. - Compare asset classes: You can adjust the equity/fixed income mix and immediately see how that change alters both your risk profile and your long-term survival chances. ## How It Works The bottom line is that you get a data-driven risk score, not just a simple estimate. 1. First, input your starting capital, desired timeline, and asset mix (e.g., 60% equities). 2. Next, run the simulation to analyze various withdrawal rates or test specific risk profiles. 3. The MCP returns a probability score showing the chance of success, alongside best-case totals for comparison. ## Frequently Asked Questions **What is a Monte Carlo simulation?** It is a mathematical technique that uses randomness to model the probability of different outcomes in a process that cannot easily be predicted due to the intervention of random variables, such as market returns. **How does this tool calculate withdrawal sustainability?** The engine simulates 1,000 different market paths based on your asset allocation. It then checks how many of those paths allow your portfolio to remain above zero until the end of your retirement horizon. **Can I test different asset allocations?** Yes, you can use `evaluate_portfolio_risk_profile` to see the risk of your mix and then run simulations with various equity and fixed income percentages. **What initial data does `simulate_withdrawal_probabilities` require?** You must provide your starting portfolio value, time horizon in years, and the current asset allocation split. The MCP needs these three core inputs to run any Monte Carlo simulation. **If I receive an error when using `evaluate_portfolio_risk_profile`, what should I check?** First, verify that your weighted percentages add up to 100%. The MCP will return a specific message detailing which inputs are outside the acceptable range (e.g., negative weights or impossible dates). **Does this calculation account for taxes and inflation?** No, the current tools do not automatically factor in variable tax brackets or annual inflation adjustments. You must adjust your inputs to reflect these costs before running any simulation. **Are there limits when using `get_scenario_extremes` repeatedly?** For typical user use, no rate limit applies. However, if you make a very large number of rapid requests, your agent may temporarily throttle access to maintain stability. **How long does the process take when I run `simulate_withdrawal_probabilities`?** The simulations are fast, typically completing within seconds. Because it runs 1,000 scenarios per test, performance remains high even with complex asset inputs.