An astronaut overseeing a futuristic data hub
Download PDFMarkdown Version

Connect Conditional Market Arbitrage Engine to your AI

Set it up once and it works in ChatGPT, Claude, Cursor, and any other client you love. It all runs safely in the background, so you can relax and focus on what really matters. Find price discrepancies in conditional prediction markets.

Ask AI about this Connector

Developed, maintained, and hosted by Vinkius.

MCP VERIFIED · PRODUCTION READY · VINKIUS GUARANTEED

Waiting for input…

Works with modern AI clients that support MCP, including ChatGPT, Claude, Cursor, and more.

ChatGPTClaudeCursorPerplexityGeminiMicrosoft CopilotRaycastMeta AI

Your AI does the work. We keep it safe and sound.

No other AI tool gives you this. Your workflow runs in the client you already love, your account stays protected, and you decide what the agent can and cannot do. It is the whole reason to make the switch.

Each Connector lives inside our infrastructure, the same place where your workflow runs. The three things below are already part of it, working quietly in the background so you never have to think about them. Nothing to add, nothing to set up, nothing to worry about.

A futuristic MCP client docking bay
V8 Isolate01

Each Connector runs inside its own sealed environment.

Each Connector runs inside its own sealed V8 runtime — no access to your files, your system, or other servers. A Connector never sees past its own request.

Kill Switch02

One switch stops every agent. Instantly.

One action deactivates every Connector, revokes every token, and ends every session at once. AI Governance keeps the record.

FinOps per User03

Spending limits that pause instead of surprise.

Every user keeps their own connections and credentials, isolated from everyone else. Anything that would cross your spending limit is held for your approval, not billed.

Three controls, built into the layer your AI connects through.

Curated set · 3 capabilities

We ship only the actions that matter.

Capability set01 / 01

01-03

3 capabilities in this set.

Part of 3 available through Conditional Market Arbitrage.

  1. 01

    Analyze conditional arbitrage

    This capability evaluates the relationship between base markets and a conditional market to find arbitrage. It identifies price deviations and provides specific trade instructions.

  2. 02

    Calculate joint probability requirement

    This capability determines the fair price for a joint outcome. It calculates what a 'Both A and B' market should cost based on existing conditional and base market prices.

  3. 03

    Verify market independence

    This capability checks if a conditional market's price is consistent with its base market. It confirms if event A actually influences the probability of event B.

Real work

What teams actually run

01

Exploiting Mispriced Conditionals

You find a conditional market priced at 0.7 when the base markets suggest it should be 0.4167.

02

Validating Market Independence

You confirm that event A has no impact on event B by checking for zero deviation in price.

03

Pricing Joint Outcomes

You determine the correct price for a 'Both A and B' market before placing a bet.

04

Automated Arbitrage Scanning

Your agent scans multiple market pairs to find deviations exceeding 5%.

One connector, every AI

Conditional Market Arbitrage works with the most popular AI clients.

These are the most popular clients, each with a step-by-step guide: one link, set up once, with governance and visibility built in. And because everything runs on the MCP standard, the same connection also works in any other compatible client — nothing to rebuild.

ClaudeClaudeChatGPTChatGPTGeminiGeminiPerplexityPerplexityGrokGrokMicrosoft CopilotMicrosoft CopilotCursorCursorVS CodeVS CodeWindsurfWindsurfJetBrainsJetBrainsClineClineLangChainLangChainVercel AI SDKVercel AI SDKLovableLovableZ.aiZ.aiRaycastRaycastQwen CodeQwen CodeKimi CodeKimi CodeLe ChatLe Chat

Building your own app? The connector is yours to use.

You don't need a client to put Conditional Market Arbitrage to work: the same hosted connection plugs into your own applications and agent code, with the same governance on every request. Build with it, chat with it — one connection for both.

Observed, not estimated

846ms average. Fast in production.

Conditional Market Arbitrage is checked daily against the live service.

Daily averagePeak 1041ms
Oct 6Today
Fastest day
663ms
Slowest day
1041ms
14-day trend
Slowing+33%

Connect your client

One URL. Every client.

Activate the Connector, copy your link, and paste it into the client you already use. 3 capabilities arrive ready to run.

Preview access · not provider authentication

The vk_preview_* token belongs to Vinkius preview infrastructure. It lets Claude discover and display the capabilities of Conditional Market Arbitrage, so you can see the experience inside your AI.

It does not authenticate your account with Conditional Market Arbitrage. Actions requiring credentials or live account data may not run until you activate the Connector and authorize the service.

Conditional Market Arbitrage Connector

You're all set. Choose your MCP client and follow the setup instructions.

Connector linkhttps://edge.vinkius.com/vk_preview_wDbKhHoFJKGyEo9WH3iTVwUkFnLk8BQo4jcAr7mv/mcp

Claude Desktop

Follow the steps below to connect in seconds.

  1. 1In Claude Desktop, open Settings → Connectors.
  2. 2Click “Add custom connector” and paste the connector link above as the remote MCP server URL.
  3. 3Click Add and start a new chat — Conditional Market Arbitrage capabilities are ready to use.
Configuration · claude_desktop_config.jsonCopy
{
  "mcpServers": {
    "conditional-market-arbitrage-engine-mcp": {
      "url": "https://edge.vinkius.com/vk_preview_wDbKhHoFJKGyEo9WH3iTVwUkFnLk8BQo4jcAr7mv/mcp"
    }
  }
}
  • Claude
  • ChatGPT
  • Cursor
  • VS Code
  • Windsurf
  • Claude Code
  • JetBrains
  • Cline

Step-by-step instructions for each client are in the guide. How to connect

Guided setup for Claude? Set up Conditional Market Arbitrage in Claude and other AIs

See all the AI clients this connector works with ↑

Who it's for

Built for the work Conditional Market Arbitrage owners hand off.

This MCP is built for professionals trading in prediction markets who need mathematical certainty.

  • 01

    Prediction Market Trader

    Hands off market prices to the AI to identify profitable arbitrage gaps.

  • 02

    Quantitative Analyst

    Uses the Bayesian capabilities to verify market independence and joint probabilities.

  • 03

    Risk Manager

    Checks for price consistency to ensure market models are behaving as expected.

FAQ

Questions Conditional Market Arbitrage owners ask.

  • 01

    How does this MCP find arbitrage?

    It uses Bayes' theorem to compare the observed price of a conditional market against the theoretical price derived from base markets.

  • 02

    What clients can I use this with?

    You can use this with any MCP-compatible client like Claude, Cursor, Windsurf, or VS Code.

  • 03

    Does it provide specific trade actions?

    Yes, when it detects a price deviation, it provides specific instructions on which markets to buy or sell to lock in returns.

  • 04

    Can it check if two events are independent?

    Yes, the verify_market_independence capability checks if the conditional market price is consistent with the base market assuming no influence.

  • 05

    Do I need to host the MCP myself?

    No, Vinkius hosts and manages the MCP for you. You just connect your client and it is ready to use.

  • 06

    How does the arbitrage detection work?

    The engine uses analyze_conditional_arbitrage to calculate the theoretical conditional price using Bayes' theorem. If the market price deviates from this theoretical value by more than 5%, an arbitrage opportunity is flagged.

  • 07

    Can I check if two events are independent?

    Yes, you can use the verify_market_independence capability to determine if the price of a conditional market is consistent with the base market, indicating whether event A influences event B.

  • 08

    What is the output of an arbitrage analysis?

    The analyze_conditional_arbitrage capability returns the deviation percentage, the implied joint probability, and a list of suggestedTrades designed to capture the guaranteed return for your deployed capital.

Explore

More in Finance

Suggestions

Connect Conditional Market Arbitrage to Claude, Cursor, ChatGPT & more