• METRICS
  • COMPARISON
  • IDENTIFICATION
  • HUMAN

How to validate forecast accuracy with your AI

Connect your demand data once. Your AI then runs error backtesting to see how well your models actually performed.

Ask AI about this page

Short answer

How can I check if my demand forecasts are accurate?

Your AI runs error backtesting by comparing your historical demand against what your models predicted. It calculates MAE and MAPE to show you exactly where the errors are. You get a clear view of model performance through specific error metrics.

Where every error lands.

The outcomes of backtesting

The AI processes your data to produce these specific results.

METRICS

Error score breakdown

The AI calculates MAE and MAPE for your datasets. You get the exact mathematical distance between your predictions and reality.

COMPARISON

Model performance gap

The agent compares different smoothing methods against your history. You see which approach minimizes error most effectively.

IDENTIFICATION

Bias detection

The AI flags where your models consistently over or under-predict. You find the specific periods where your forecast drifted.

HUMAN

Strategic adjustment

The AI provides the math, but you decide how to adjust inventory or production. You use the error data to make the final call.

The workflow

What your AI does when the data arrives.

The AI handles the heavy math so you can focus on the implications.

  1. Calculate baseline errors

    The AI compares your historical demand against simple moving averages to establish a baseline error rate.

    analyze_sma

  2. Test weighted trends

    The agent applies weights to recent data to see if recent trends reduce your MAPE.

    analyze_wma

  3. Evaluate smoothing

    The AI runs exponential smoothing to check if your model handles seasonality or shifts better than simple averages.

    analyze_exponential_smoothing

  4. Summarize accuracy

    The agent aggregates the results into a final comparison of MAE and MAPE across all tested methods.

    analyze_smaanalyze_wmaanalyze_exponential_smoothing

Try it

Copy these to start.

Use these prompts to kick off the backtesting process.

Starting points

These are starting points. Replace the bracketed text with your specific file names or sheet ranges.

Demand Forecast Calculator Connector

You're all set. Choose your MCP client and follow the setup instructions.

Connector linkhttps://edge.vinkius.com/vk_preview_sv6aatMHqHyqOR4XjXsLusL61ZUZceGD44vNHlLt/mcp

Claude Desktop

Follow the steps below to connect in seconds.

  1. 1In Claude Desktop, open Settings → Connectors.
  2. 2Click “Add custom connector” and paste the connector link above as the remote MCP server URL.
  3. 3Click Add and start a new chat — Demand Forecast Calculator capabilities are ready to use.
Configuration · claude_desktop_config.jsonCopy
{
  "mcpServers": {
    "demand-forecast-calculator-mcp": {
      "url": "https://edge.vinkius.com/vk_preview_sv6aatMHqHyqOR4XjXsLusL61ZUZceGD44vNHlLt/mcp"
    }
  }
}
Copy into chat04

  • Run an error backtest on the demand data in my 'Sales_2023' spreadsheet.

  • Compare the MAE of a simple moving average against exponential smoothing for my inventory sheet.

  • Calculate the MAPE for my recent forecast predictions using the data in 'Demand_History.csv'.

  • Which smoothing method had the lowest error for the product categories in my current sheet?

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Start here

Connect Demand Forecast Calculator once, then ask.

Just link your data source once. Your credentials stay encrypted, and you can start asking questions immediately.

Connect Demand Forecast Calculator to your AI

FAQ

How this task behaves

  • 01

    Can the AI change my original demand data?

    No. The AI only reads your data to perform calculations. It cannot modify your source files or spreadsheets.

  • 02

    Does it calculate MAPE and MAE automatically?

    Yes. The AI uses these specific metrics to evaluate the accuracy of the models it tests.

  • 03

    Can the AI create new forecast files for me?

    No. The AI provides the error analysis and the math, but it does not write or save new files to your drive.

  • 04

    What happens if my data has missing values?

    The AI will report errors if it cannot perform the math. You will need to clean the data in your source file first.

  • 05

    Can I ask it to pick the best model for me?

    Yes. Once it runs the backtesting, you can ask which method resulted in the lowest error rate.

  • More questions about Demand Forecast Calculator? The Connector page answers them. See everything the Demand Forecast Calculator Connector can do

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