How do I use this with Claude?

You connect to the Vinkius catalog once, and the capabilities become available in your Claude interface immediately.

What math does it use for position sizing?

The MCP uses the fractional Kelly criterion to calculate recommended capital commitments.

Can I use this for sports betting?

Yes, the capabilities are designed to calculate edge and position size for any market where you have a probability model.

Do I need to host the MCP myself?

No, Vinkius hosts and manages the MCP so it is ready to use the moment you connect.

What kind of signals does it provide?

It generates BUY or SELL signals based on whether the expected value indicates a statistically significant opportunity.

How is the BUY signal generated?

A BUY signal is generated by calculate_edge_and_signal when the calculated Expected Value (EV) exceeds a 0.05 (5%) threshold.

What is the fractional Kelly multiplier?

It is a scaling factor used in calculate_position_size to reduce the volatility of the full Kelly bet, helping to manage risk and prevent ruin.

Can I use this with Claude Desktop?

Yes, this MCP server can be connected to Claude Desktop, Cursor, VS Code, Windsurf, and any other MCP-compatible client via Vinkius Edge.

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Connect Expected Value vs Implied Probability to your AI

Set it up once and it works in ChatGPT, Claude, Cursor, and any other client you love. It all runs safely in the background, so you can relax and focus on what really matters. Turn mathematical models into actionable market signals.

Ask AI about this Connector

Developed, maintained, and hosted by Vinkius.

MCP VERIFIED · PRODUCTION READY · VINKIUS GUARANTEED

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Works with modern AI clients that support MCP, including ChatGPT, Claude, Cursor, and more.

Your AI does the work. We keep it safe and sound.

No other AI tool gives you this. Your workflow runs in the client you already love, your account stays protected, and you decide what the agent can and cannot do. It is the whole reason to make the switch.

Each Connector lives inside our infrastructure, the same place where your workflow runs. The three things below are already part of it, working quietly in the background so you never have to think about them. Nothing to add, nothing to set up, nothing to worry about.

V8 Isolate01

Each Connector runs inside its own sealed environment.

Each Connector runs inside its own sealed V8 runtime — no access to your files, your system, or other servers. A Connector never sees past its own request.

Kill Switch02

One switch stops every agent. Instantly.

One action deactivates every Connector, revokes every token, and ends every session at once. AI Governance keeps the record.

FinOps per User03

Spending limits that pause instead of surprise.

Every user keeps their own connections and credentials, isolated from everyone else. Anything that would cross your spending limit is held for your approval, not billed.

Three controls, built into the layer your AI connects through.

Curated set · 3 capabilities

We ship only the actions that matter.

Capability set01 / 01

01-03

3 capabilities in this set.

Part of 3 available through Expected Value vs Implied Probability.

01
Calculate position size
This capability calculates the specific amount of capital you should commit to a position. It uses fractional Kelly math to balance growth against risk.
02
Calculate edge and signal
This capability determines if a market position is a statistically significant opportunity. It outputs specific BUY or SELL signals based on the calculated edge.
03
Get market status
This capability provides a high level summary of the relationship between market pricing and your model. It highlights where conviction gaps are widest.

Real work

What teams actually run

Identifying Undervalued Markets

Your agent compares a model probability of 0.60 against a market price of 0.50 to flag a BUY opportunity.

Bankroll Optimization

You provide your current bankroll and a potential edge to get a precise capital commitment recommendation.

Market Gap Analysis

The AI uses market status capabilities to see where market pricing deviates most from your fundamental models.

Automated Signal Checking

You feed market data into the agent to instantly receive a BUY, SELL, or hold signal.

One connector, every AI

Expected Value vs Implied Probability works with the most popular AI clients.

These are the most popular clients, each with a step-by-step guide: one link, set up once, with governance and visibility built in. And because everything runs on the MCP standard, the same connection also works in any other compatible client — nothing to rebuild.

Building your own app? The connector is yours to use.

You don't need a client to put Expected Value vs Implied Probability to work: the same hosted connection plugs into your own applications and agent code, with the same governance on every request. Build with it, chat with it — one connection for both.

Observed, not estimated

821ms average. Fast in production.

Expected Value vs Implied Probability is checked daily against the live service.

Daily averagePeak 956ms

Oct 3Today

Fastest day: 630ms
Slowest day: 956ms
14-day trend: Stable-3%

Connect your client

One URL. Every client.

Activate the Connector, copy your link, and paste it into the client you already use. 3 capabilities arrive ready to run.

Preview access · not provider authentication

The vk_preview_* token belongs to Vinkius preview infrastructure. It lets Claude discover and display the capabilities of Expected Value vs Implied Probability, so you can see the experience inside your AI.

It does not authenticate your account with Expected Value vs Implied Probability. Actions requiring credentials or live account data may not run until you activate the Connector and authorize the service.

Expected Value vs Implied Probability Connector

You're all set. Choose your MCP client and follow the setup instructions.

Connector linkhttps://edge.vinkius.com/vk_preview_57grJMDgNBl7iztCzgzlyfUlTXqA1RoaIJ9c4qKx/mcp

Claude Desktop

Follow the steps below to connect in seconds.

1In Claude Desktop, open Settings → Connectors.
2Click “Add custom connector” and paste the connector link above as the remote MCP server URL.
3Click Add and start a new chat — Expected Value vs Implied Probability capabilities are ready to use.

Configuration · claude_desktop_config.jsonCopy

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "expected-value-vs-implied-probability-mcp": {
      "url": "https://edge.vinkius.com/vk_preview_57grJMDgNBl7iztCzgzlyfUlTXqA1RoaIJ9c4qKx/mcp"
    }
  }
}

Claude
ChatGPT
Cursor
VS Code
Windsurf
Claude Code
JetBrains
Cline

Step-by-step instructions for each client are in the guide. How to connect

Guided setup for Claude? Set up Expected Value vs Implied Probability in Claude and other AIs

See all the AI clients this connector works with ↑

Who it's for

Built for the work Expected Value vs Implied Probability owners hand off.

This is built for professionals who rely on probabilistic modeling to make financial or betting decisions.

01
Quantitative Traders
They hand off market pricing and model probabilities to the AI to find execution edges.
02
Sports Bettors
They use the capability to translate model projections into disciplined position sizing.
03
Risk Managers
They use the Kelly criterion capabilities to ensure capital allocation stays within statistical bounds.

FAQ

Questions Expected Value vs Implied Probability owners ask.

01
How do I use this with Claude?
You connect to the Vinkius catalog once, and the capabilities become available in your Claude interface immediately.
02
What math does it use for position sizing?
The MCP uses the fractional Kelly criterion to calculate recommended capital commitments.
03
Can I use this for sports betting?
Yes, the capabilities are designed to calculate edge and position size for any market where you have a probability model.
04
Do I need to host the MCP myself?
No, Vinkius hosts and manages the MCP so it is ready to use the moment you connect.
05
What kind of signals does it provide?
It generates BUY or SELL signals based on whether the expected value indicates a statistically significant opportunity.
06
How is the BUY signal generated?
A BUY signal is generated by calculate_edge_and_signal when the calculated Expected Value (EV) exceeds a 0.05 (5%) threshold.
07
What is the fractional Kelly multiplier?
It is a scaling factor used in calculate_position_size to reduce the volatility of the full Kelly bet, helping to manage risk and prevent ruin.
08
Can I use this with Claude Desktop?
Yes, this MCP server can be connected to Claude Desktop, Cursor, VS Code, Windsurf, and any other MCP-compatible client via Vinkius Edge.

Explore

More in Finance

Connect Expected Value vs Implied Probability to Claude, Cursor, ChatGPT & more

Your AI does the work. We keep it safe and sound.

Each Connector runs inside its own sealed environment.

One switch stops every agent. Instantly.

Spending limits that pause instead of surprise.

We ship only the actions that matter.

01-03

Calculate position size

Calculate edge and signal

Get market status

What teams actually run

Identifying Undervalued Markets

Bankroll Optimization

Market Gap Analysis

Automated Signal Checking

Building your own app? The connector is yours to use.

Expected Value vs Implied Probability Connector

Claude Desktop

Quantitative Traders

Sports Bettors

Risk Managers

How do I use this with Claude?

What math does it use for position sizing?

Can I use this for sports betting?

Do I need to host the MCP myself?

What kind of signals does it provide?

How is the BUY signal generated?

What is the fractional Kelly multiplier?

Can I use this with Claude Desktop?

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Kelly Criterion Bankroll Optimizer AI Connector

Kelly Criterion Strategy AI Connector

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