How does this MCP protect my bankroll?

It enforces a strict 5% cap on every position and allows for the use of safety multipliers to reduce bet sizes.

What kind of markets is this for?

This MCP is specifically designed for binary prediction markets where you are betting on specific outcomes.

Can I use this with Claude or Cursor?

Yes, you can connect this MCP to any compatible client like Claude, Cursor, or Windsurf.

Does it calculate Half-Kelly sizing?

Yes, you can specify different multipliers, such as Half-Kelly, when asking for position sizes.

What is the purpose of the simulation capability?

The simulation capability forecasts long-term growth, maximum drawdown, and the risk of ruin for a given strategy.

How does the position sizing cap work?

The server enforces a hard 5% cap on any single bet. Even if calculate_kelly_position suggests a larger amount, the recommended bet size will never exceed 5% of your current bankroll.

What is the difference between Full Kelly and Half-Kelly?

Full Kelly uses the raw mathematical fraction. Half-Kelly uses a safetyMultiplier of 0.5, which reduces the bet size to half of the full Kelly amount to decrease volatility and drawdown risk.

Can I simulate long-term outcomes?

Yes, you can use simulate_strategy_performance to run a simulation of consecutive bets to estimate your expected growth rate and the probability of a 90% drawdown.

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Connect Kelly Criterion Bankroll Optimizer to your AI

Set it up once and it works in ChatGPT, Claude, Cursor, and any other client you love. It all runs safely in the background, so you can relax and focus on what really matters. Calculate precise position sizes for binary prediction markets.

Ask AI about this Connector

Developed, maintained, and hosted by Vinkius.

MCP VERIFIED · PRODUCTION READY · VINKIUS GUARANTEED

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Works with modern AI clients that support MCP, including ChatGPT, Claude, Cursor, and more.

Your AI does the work. We keep it safe and sound.

No other AI tool gives you this. Your workflow runs in the client you already love, your account stays protected, and you decide what the agent can and cannot do. It is the whole reason to make the switch.

Each Connector lives inside our infrastructure, the same place where your workflow runs. The three things below are already part of it, working quietly in the background so you never have to think about them. Nothing to add, nothing to set up, nothing to worry about.

V8 Isolate01

Each Connector runs inside its own sealed environment.

Each Connector runs inside its own sealed V8 runtime — no access to your files, your system, or other servers. A Connector never sees past its own request.

Kill Switch02

One switch stops every agent. Instantly.

One action deactivates every Connector, revokes every token, and ends every session at once. AI Governance keeps the record.

FinOps per User03

Spending limits that pause instead of surprise.

Every user keeps their own connections and credentials, isolated from everyone else. Anything that would cross your spending limit is held for your approval, not billed.

Three controls, built into the layer your AI connects through.

Curated set · 3 capabilities

We ship only the actions that matter.

Capability set01 / 01

01-03

3 capabilities in this set.

Part of 3 available through Kelly Criterion Optimizer.

01
Calculate kelly position
This capability calculates the recommended bet size for a single market opportunity. It uses your bankroll, the market price, and your estimated probability to find the optimal amount.
02
Simulate strategy performance
This capability estimates the long-term behavior and risks of a specific betting strategy. It helps you forecast growth rates and the likelihood of ruin over many iterations.
03
Validate market edge
This capability quickly determines if a market opportunity is worth pursuing. It compares your estimated probability against the market price to see if a profitable edge exists.

Real work

What teams actually run

Single Trade Sizing

You find a market with a clear edge and need to know exactly how much to bet to stay within Kelly limits.

Strategy Stress Testing

You want to see how a specific set of rules would have performed over 100 trades before using real money.

Edge Verification

You have a conviction about an event and want to check if the current market price makes it a mathematically sound bet.

Bankroll Management

You use the safety multipliers to scale down your bets during periods of high volatility.

One connector, every AI

Kelly Criterion Optimizer works with the most popular AI clients.

These are the most popular clients, each with a step-by-step guide: one link, set up once, with governance and visibility built in. And because everything runs on the MCP standard, the same connection also works in any other compatible client — nothing to rebuild.

Building your own app? The connector is yours to use.

You don't need a client to put Kelly Criterion Optimizer to work: the same hosted connection plugs into your own applications and agent code, with the same governance on every request. Build with it, chat with it — one connection for both.

Observed, not estimated

888ms average. Fast in production.

Kelly Criterion Optimizer is checked daily against the live service.

Daily averagePeak 1127ms

Oct 3Today

Fastest day: 642ms
Slowest day: 1127ms
14-day trend: Slowing+12%

Connect your client

One URL. Every client.

Activate the Connector, copy your link, and paste it into the client you already use. 3 capabilities arrive ready to run.

Preview access · not provider authentication

The vk_preview_* token belongs to Vinkius preview infrastructure. It lets Claude discover and display the capabilities of Kelly Criterion Optimizer, so you can see the experience inside your AI.

It does not authenticate your account with Kelly Criterion Optimizer. Actions requiring credentials or live account data may not run until you activate the Connector and authorize the service.

Kelly Criterion Optimizer Connector

You're all set. Choose your MCP client and follow the setup instructions.

Connector linkhttps://edge.vinkius.com/vk_preview_Zd7AMMhTtCWeNNInBD8hPrVe437r6sz6L02oyUYA/mcp

Claude Desktop

Follow the steps below to connect in seconds.

1In Claude Desktop, open Settings → Connectors.
2Click “Add custom connector” and paste the connector link above as the remote MCP server URL.
3Click Add and start a new chat — Kelly Criterion Optimizer capabilities are ready to use.

Configuration · claude_desktop_config.jsonCopy

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "kelly-criterion-bankroll-optimizer-mcp": {
      "url": "https://edge.vinkius.com/vk_preview_Zd7AMMhTtCWeNNInBD8hPrVe437r6sz6L02oyUYA/mcp"
    }
  }
}

Claude
ChatGPT
Cursor
VS Code
Windsurf
Claude Code
JetBrains
Cline

Step-by-step instructions for each client are in the guide. How to connect

Guided setup for Claude? Set up Kelly Criterion Optimizer in Claude and other AIs

See all the AI clients this connector works with ↑

Who it's for

Built for the work Kelly Criterion Optimizer owners hand off.

This MCP is designed for individuals trading in binary prediction markets who want to remove emotion from their sizing.

01
Prediction Market Traders
They hand off market prices and probability estimates to the AI to get precise bet sizes.
02
Risk Managers
They use the simulation capabilities to stress test betting strategies against ruin.
03
Quantitative Analysts
They use the deterministic math to validate edges in various market opportunities.

FAQ

Questions Kelly Criterion Optimizer owners ask.

01
How does this MCP protect my bankroll?
It enforces a strict 5% cap on every position and allows for the use of safety multipliers to reduce bet sizes.
02
What kind of markets is this for?
This MCP is specifically designed for binary prediction markets where you are betting on specific outcomes.
03
Can I use this with Claude or Cursor?
Yes, you can connect this MCP to any compatible client like Claude, Cursor, or Windsurf.
04
Does it calculate Half-Kelly sizing?
Yes, you can specify different multipliers, such as Half-Kelly, when asking for position sizes.
05
What is the purpose of the simulation capability?
The simulation capability forecasts long-term growth, maximum drawdown, and the risk of ruin for a given strategy.
06
How does the position sizing cap work?
The server enforces a hard 5% cap on any single bet. Even if calculate_kelly_position suggests a larger amount, the recommended bet size will never exceed 5% of your current bankroll.
07
What is the difference between Full Kelly and Half-Kelly?
Full Kelly uses the raw mathematical fraction. Half-Kelly uses a safetyMultiplier of 0.5, which reduces the bet size to half of the full Kelly amount to decrease volatility and drawdown risk.
08
Can I simulate long-term outcomes?
Yes, you can use simulate_strategy_performance to run a simulation of consecutive bets to estimate your expected growth rate and the probability of a 90% drawdown.

Explore

More in Finance

Connect Kelly Criterion Optimizer to Claude, Cursor, ChatGPT & more

Your AI does the work. We keep it safe and sound.

Each Connector runs inside its own sealed environment.

One switch stops every agent. Instantly.

Spending limits that pause instead of surprise.

We ship only the actions that matter.

01-03

Calculate kelly position

Simulate strategy performance

Validate market edge

What teams actually run

Single Trade Sizing

Strategy Stress Testing

Edge Verification

Bankroll Management

Building your own app? The connector is yours to use.

Kelly Criterion Optimizer Connector

Claude Desktop

Prediction Market Traders

Risk Managers

Quantitative Analysts

How does this MCP protect my bankroll?

What kind of markets is this for?

Can I use this with Claude or Cursor?

Does it calculate Half-Kelly sizing?

What is the purpose of the simulation capability?

How does the position sizing cap work?

What is the difference between Full Kelly and Half-Kelly?

Can I simulate long-term outcomes?

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