• PROBABILITY
  • MULTIPLES
  • SCENARIOS
  • HUMAN

How to forecast accelerator cohort returns with your AI

Connect your portfolio data once. Your AI then runs power law simulations to project the financial outcomes of your entire cohort.

Ask AI about this page

Short answer

How can I predict my accelerator cohort's returns?

Your AI uses power law simulations to model the expected value and total return multiples for a specific class of investments. You get a breakdown of probabilistic outcomes based on your current portfolio data.

Expected outcomes

What the simulation produces

The AI processes your data to generate these specific outputs.

PROBABILITY

Expected value models

The AI calculates the probable financial outcome for the cohort. You get a view of the expected value based on power law distributions.

MULTIPLES

Total return multiples

The simulation outputs projected multiples for the entire class. This lets you compare performance against historical benchmarks.

SCENARIOS

Risk and upside profiles

You receive a breakdown of different return paths. This shows how much of your return depends on a single outlier success.

HUMAN

Strategic decisions

The AI provides the math, but you decide how to adjust your selection criteria or follow-on strategy.

The workflow

What your AI does when the data arrives.

The AI handles the heavy math and statistical modeling.

  1. Data ingestion

    Your AI reads your current portfolio holdings and investment amounts from your connected sheets or databases.

    simulate_portfolio_outcomes

  2. Power law modeling

    The agent applies power law distributions to the cohort data to account for the typical venture capital return profile.

    simulate_portfolio_outcomes

  3. Outcome projection

    It runs multiple iterations to find the most likely total return multiples and expected values.

    simulate_portfolio_outcomes

  4. Summary generation

    The AI presents the final statistical distribution in a format you can use for reporting or planning.

    simulate_portfolio_outcomes

Try it

Copy these to start.

Direct prompts to trigger the simulation.

Starting points

Replace the bracketed text with your specific file names or cohort identifiers.

Accelerator Portfolio Construction Connector

You're all set. Choose your MCP client and follow the setup instructions.

Connector linkhttps://edge.vinkius.com/vk_preview_7tr9zHSIXH6CO8fhTePQBCiPRBL1pdCGedpVD6Ru/mcp

Claude Desktop

Follow the steps below to connect in seconds.

  1. 1In Claude Desktop, open Settings → Connectors.
  2. 2Click “Add custom connector” and paste the connector link above as the remote MCP server URL.
  3. 3Click Add and start a new chat — Accelerator Portfolio Construction capabilities are ready to use.
Configuration · claude_desktop_config.jsonCopy
{
  "mcpServers": {
    "accelerator-portfolio-construction-mcp": {
      "url": "https://edge.vinkius.com/vk_preview_7tr9zHSIXH6CO8fhTePQBCiPRBL1pdCGedpVD6Ru/mcp"
    }
  }
}
Copy into chat04

  • Run a power law simulation for the 2023 Summer cohort in my Google Sheet.

  • What is the expected total return multiple for the portfolio listed in 'Portfolio_Data_V2.csv'?

  • Simulate the expected value for my current accelerator class using the data from my CRM.

  • Based on the 2022 cohort data, what is the projected outcome for my new batch?

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Start here

Connect Accelerator Portfolio Construction once, then ask.

Link your data source to the MCP. Once connected, your AI can immediately run simulations on any cohort you specify.

Connect Accelerator Portfolio Construction to your AI

FAQ

How this task behaves

  • 01

    Can the AI change my original investment data?

    No. The AI only reads your data to perform calculations. It cannot modify your spreadsheets or database records.

  • 02

    Does the AI decide which companies to follow on with?

    No. The AI provides the statistical projections, but the final investment decisions remain with you.

  • 03

    What kind of data does it need to run a simulation?

    It needs a list of investments, including the amount invested in each company and the cohort identifier.

  • 04

    Can I run simulations on a single company?

    No. This tool is designed to simulate the outcomes of an entire cohort or portfolio class.

  • 05

    Does it use real-time market data?

    No. It uses the historical and current data you provide in your connected files to run the power law models.

  • More questions about Accelerator Portfolio Construction? The Connector page answers them. See everything the Accelerator Portfolio Construction Connector can do

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